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동북아 안보 지정학과 한국의 정책 대응 분석 : 문재인·윤석열 정부 비교

  • 윤삼수 (정책대학원 국제관계학과)

초록/요약

북한의 지속적인 핵무기 개발과 군사적 도발은 한반도와 동북아시아의 안보 지 형을 크게 변화시키고 있다. 이에 대응하는 한미동맹은 각 정부의 정책 방향과 전 략적 우선순위에 따라 상이한 모습을 보였다. 본 논문은 문재인 정부와 윤석열 정 부의 대북정책 및 한미동맹 접근법을 비교 분석하여 두 정부의 정책적 특징과 전 략적 차이를 심층적으로 고찰하였다. 문재인 정부는 한반도의 평화 구축과 남북 관계 개선을 핵심 목표로 삼고, 대 화와 협력을 통해 비핵화 추진을 시도하였다. 특히, 남북 정상회담과 북미 정상회 담을 중재하며 군사적 긴장 완화에 기여했으나, 북한의 실질적인 비핵화 의지 부 족과 지속적인 도발로 인해 구체적인 성과를 거두는 데에는 한계가 있었다. 반면 윤석열 정부는 확장 억제를 기반으로 한미동맹의 군사적 협력을 강화하 고, 한·미·일 삼각 협력 체제를 재건함으로써 강력한 억제전략을 구사하였다. 미국 의 전략자산 배치와 확장 억제 협의체(EDSCG) 재활성화, 한미연합훈련 확대 및 실시간 정보공유 체계 구축 등은 군사적 대비 태세를 한층 강화한 사례로 볼 수 있다. 또한 인도·태평양 경제 프레임워크(IPEF)를 활용한 공급망 안정과 첨단 기술 협력은 경제 안보를 강화하는 데 기여하였다. 결론적으로, 문재인 정부는 대화와 협력을 통한 평화적 해결에 집중한 반면, 윤석열 정부는 군사적 억제력 강화와 다자 협력을 통한 대응을 중시하였다. 특히, 한·미·일 삼각 협력은 군사 및 경제 분야를 아우르며 동북아시아의 안정과 글로벌 경제 질서에서 중요한 역할을 수행하고 있다. 이러한 정책적 전환은 북한의 핵 위 협과 복잡한 안보 환경에 대응하기 위해 균형 잡힌 안보 전략의 중요성을 강조하 며, 한반도 평화와 지역 안보의 지속 가능성을 위한 과제를 제시한다.

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목차

국문 초록·················································································································· ⅰ
목 차 ························································································································ ⅱ
표 목 차···················································································································· ⅳ
I. 서론······················································································································ 1
1. 문제 제기········································································································· 1
2. 기존 연구 검토································································································ 2
1) 연구 주제 및 목적····················································································· 2
2) 문재인 정부의 대북정책············································································ 3
3) 윤석열 정부의 대북정책 변화··································································· 3
4) 기존 연구의 시사점과 한계······································································· 4
3. 주장·················································································································· 5
4. 논문의 구성····································································································· 7
Ⅱ. 한국의 대외 안보 환경············································································· 10
1. 동북아시아의 지역 안보 및 대외 환경 변화················································· 10
1) 중국의 군사력 증대와 한·중 관계··························································· 11
2) 한·미·일 삼각 협력의 진화와 일본과의 안보 협력··································12
3) 냉전 시기 협력의 시작과 동북아 안보 전략의 진화·····························13
4) 북한 핵 위협과 삼각 협력의 강화 배경················································· 15
2. 북핵 위협에 대한 대응 프로세스:인식변화 및 대응 전략을 중심으로·······16
1) 북한의 핵 개발 현황과 전략적 목표······················································ 16
2) 북의 최신 핵 및 미사일 개발과 국제적 안보 위협·······························18
3) 북한의 군사적 위협과 한국의 대응 옵션··············································· 19
4) 과학 기술의 진전과 지역 안정성에 관한 상관 관계·······························20
Ⅲ. 문재인·윤석열 정부의 북핵 대응 및 한미동맹 정책·······················22
1. 문재인 정부··································································································· 22
1) 북핵 대응 전략························································································ 22
2) 한미동맹 정책·························································································· 23
3) 성과와 한계······························································································ 24
2. 윤석열 정부··································································································· 25
1) 북핵 대응 전략························································································ 25
2) 한미동맹 정책·························································································· 27
3) 성과와 한계······························································································ 29
Ⅳ. 문재인·윤석열 정부의 한·미·일 안보 협력 정책·································30
1. 정책 기조와 특징·························································································· 30
1) 문재인 정부: 대화 중심 평화 정책························································· 30
2) 윤석열 정부: 확장 억제와 삼각 협력 강화············································ 31
2. 한·미·일 협력의 주요 성과와 한계······························································· 33
1) 문재인 정부······························································································ 33
2) 윤석열 정부······························································································ 34
3. 동북아 지역 안보 구도와 삼각 협력의 변화··············································· 36
1) 동북아 안보 환경의 변화와 삼각 협력의 진화······································36
2) 중국 부상(浮上)에 대한 대응 ································································· 37
3) 삼각 협력의 과제와 기여 가능성···························································· 39
Ⅴ. 결 론··············································································································· 41
1. 연구 요지······································································································· 41
2. 향후 연구 방향······························································································ 42
【참고문헌】············································································································· 44

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