Intergenerational Correlation in Fertility Behaviors and Its Application to an Alternative Population Projection Method : Evidence from Korea
- 주제(키워드) intergenerational correlation , fertility behaviors , population projection method
- 발행기관 고려대학교 대학원
- 지도교수 김진영
- 발행년도 2019
- 학위수여년월 2019. 2
- 유형 Text
- 학위구분 석사
- 학과 대학원 경제학과
- 원문페이지 63 p
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/korea/000000083797
- UCI I804:11009-000000083797
- DOI 10.23186/korea.000000083797.11009.0000901
- 본문언어 영어
- 제출원본 000045977281
초록/요약
This paper verifies the existence of positive intergenerational correlation (IC) in the number of children and applies the findings to construct an alternative population projection method. For verifying the existence of IC, we construct three types of model: time trend controlled model, binomial logistic regression model, relative fertility model. All results for these 3 models report that there exists a positive IC in the number of children. For suggesting alternative population projection method, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is adopted to forecast CFR for future birth cohort. As a result, the method assuming IC in the number of children forecasted CFR for 2000 as 1.6768. This value is higher than the value without assuming IC in the number of children and the value that Statistics Korea suggested.
more목차
Ⅰ. Introduction 1
Ⅱ. Data 3
Ⅲ. Intergenerational Correlation in the Number of Children 5
A. A Simple Regression Model to Find IC Coefficient 5
B. Alternative Models for the First Model 6
B.1 Time trend controlled model 7
B.2 Binomial logistic regression model 9
B.3 Relative fertility model 10
C. Additional Findings 11
Ⅳ. Application to an Alternative Population Projection Method 15
A. A Simple Model 15
B. A Brief Introduction of the Current Population Projection Method by Statistics Korea 16
C. Process of the Application and Data 19
C.1. The process of the alternative model 19
C.2. Why ARIMA 22
C.3. The data 24
D. The Projection Results of CFR for Each Cohorts with the Alternative Method 25
D.1. The result with assuming the existence of intergenerational correlation 25
D.2. The result without assuming the existence of intergenerational correlation 27
E. Discussions 28
E.1. Comparison of each values with others 28
E.2. Suggestions for the further research 29
Ⅴ. Conclusion 30
References 32
Tables 34
Figures 49
