Be Careful What You Serve : The Effect of Category, Location, and Size on Restaurant Survival
- 주제(키워드) restaurants , survival analysis , proportional hazard , frailty , methods of simulated likelihood
- 발행기관 고려대학교 대학원
- 지도교수 김세익
- 지도교수 이삼호
- 발행년도 2016
- 학위수여년월 2016. 2
- 학위구분 석사
- 학과 대학원 경제학과
- 원문페이지 28 p
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/korea/000000065091
- 본문언어 영어
- 제출원본 000045866411
초록/요약
This paper attempts to figure out factors that affect the survival of restaurants in eleven districts of Seoul. While previous research on organizational mortality has mostly focused on business owner’s demographics and financial performance, this paper explores to what extent the category of product sold matters in business survival. Besides parametric survival models that assume Weibull duration, Cox’s proportional hazard model is also used, taking advantage of not having to specify the baseline hazard function. Unobserved heterogeneity was modeled by the concept of frailty, which we approximate with gamma distribution. We further estimate the model with lognormal frailty, for which we integrate out the heterogeneity term via methods of simulated likelihood. Our results altogether confirm that ‘what’ as well as ‘where’ has a substantial bearing on restaurant viability, a result coherent with findings in prior research. In specific, we conclude that there are substantial gaps in hazard across districts and types of food sold. Western, Korean snack, and chicken turned out a risky choice for potential restaurant owners, when compared to average Korean dishes. The results also suggest that smaller restaurants are more vulnerable to shutdown risk, validating Stinchcombe’s ‘liability of smallness’. We propose possible extension to this topic by breaking down the cause of failure to implement the competing risks model, and further adoption of time-varying regressors.
more목차
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review 3
3. Data 6
4. Econometric Methods 12
5. Estimation Results 14
6. Concluding Remarks 19
References 20
