소득불평등과 경제성장의 관계에 대한 연구 : ASEAN+3 국가의 Panel data 분석
- 주제(키워드) 소득불평등 , 경제성장 , 패널
- 발행기관 고려대학교 대학원
- 지도교수 이충열
- 발행년도 2015
- 학위수여년월 2015. 2
- 학위구분 석사
- 학과 일반대학원 경제통계학과
- 원문페이지 53 p
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/korea/000000056764
- 본문언어 한국어
- 제출원본 000045826641
초록/요약
소득불평등과 경제성장의 관계는 해결되지 않은 경제학의 주제로써 오랜 기간 다양한 방법으로 연구되고 있는 주제이다. Kuznets(1955)는 역U자형 가설을 통해 경제성장과 소득불평등을 설명하였으며, 이후 Forbes(2000)는 Arellano and Bond(1991)의 차분GMM 모형을 통해 소득불평등의 심화가 경제성장을 촉진할 수 있음을 보였다. 그러나 소득불평등과 경제성장의 관계는 일관성있는 모습을 보이지 않고 있으며 분석 방법 또한 정교해지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 우리나라를 포함한 1980년 부터 2011년 까지의 ASEAN+3 국가 및 주요국 데이터를 통해 소득불평등의 확대가 경제성장에 미치는 효과를 세전과 세후의 지니계수를 통해 실증적으로 분석하고자 한다. 분석에 사용된 모형은 일반적인 국가 간 횡단면 회귀분석인 Pooled OLS를 통한 방법부터 변수 간 내생성 문제를 해결하고자 동태적 패널 분석 기법인 차분 GMM 및 시스템GMM 기법을 이용하였다. 본 연구는 분석방법을 달리하여 소득불평등이 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 재평가하였다. 또한 소득불평등을 나타내는 지수를 일반적인 지니계수에서 세분화하여 세전소득에 대한 지니계수와 세후소득에 대한 지니계수를 각각 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 ASEAN+3 국가의 소득불평등도는 경제성장과 약하게 음의 상관 관계를 나타내는 것으로 횡단면 회귀분석 결과 확인 되었다. 또한 차분 및 시스템 GMM 분석 결과 소득불평등이 경제성장에 미치는 5년 단위의 중기적인 영향은 불확실하게 나타났으나, 차분GMM분석에서 세전소득을 기준으로 추정한 지니계수의 경우 유의한 수준에서 경제성장과 양(+)의 관계를 가지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 결과에서 ASEAN+3 국가의 소득불평등 심화는 경제성장에 양의 상관관계를 가지고 있는 것으로 나타났으나, 소득불평등의 측정방법에 따라 경제성장에 미치는 효과가 달라질 수 있다. 즉, 일반적인 지니계수가 아닌 양극화 지수를 사용하면 다른 결과가 도출될 수 있음을 의미한다.
more목차
I. 서론 ·································································································· 1
II. 선행연구 ····························································································3
1. 불평등에 관한 선행연구 ····································································· 3
1.1 불평등과 정부지출 ···················································································· 3
1.2 불평등과 교육투자 ···················································································· 3
1.3 불평등과 무역 ···························································································· 4
1.4 불평등과 기술진보 ······················································································ 5
1.5 불평등과 소득수준 ···················································································· 6
2. 불평등과 경제성장에 관한 선행연구 ··············································· 7
III. 분석자료 및 모형 ···································································· 12
1. ASEAN+3 국가의 소득불평등과 경제성장의 관계 ···················· 12
2. 데이터 ··································································································· 17
3. 실증분석 ······························································································· 22
3.1 횡단면 회귀분석 (Cross-Sectional Regression) ······························ 22
3.2 패널분석(Panel Analysis) ······································································ 25
IV. 결론 ····························································································· 40
참고문헌 ······································································································ 43
부록 ··············································································································· 47
