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The Great Powers and Secessionist Movements : Military Support for Secessionist Groups

초록/요약

ABSTRACT The Pattern of Great Powers’ Military Support for Secessionists Throughout the history of International Relations, there can be found the phenomenon whereby Great Powers provide military support for one country’s secessionists. But there are also instances when Great Powers do not provide military support for the secessionists. Why does such a phenomenon occur? This thesis explains why and when Great Powers would or would not provide this military support for secessionists. The central theme of this thesis is security theory. The Great Powers’ national security, rivalry and power distribution vis-à-vis the state hosting the secessionist movement are the independent variables of this thesis. The main research method used is process-tracing method. The result of this research explains the pattern of the Great Powers’ military support for the secessionists. Firstly, when a Great Power is in peacetime with its rival Great Power state hosting the secessionist movement, then the Great Power would not provide military support for the secessionists, such as found in the Tibet Independence Movement case where the United States did not provide military support for the Tibetan Government-in-Exile against China. Second, when the Great Power is in war with another great power hosting the secessionist movement such as in the Czechoslovakian case then the Great Power would provide military support such as that in evidence with the Russian Empire’s military support for the Czech and Slovak secessionists against Austria-Hungary during World War I. Third, when a Great Power faces a Minor Power state hosting a secessionist movement which does not have a Great Power ally, then a Great Power would provide military support for the secessionists as in the Kosovo case where the United States provided military support for the Kosovo Liberation Army against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This thesis is also able to show the changes of Great Powers’ military support for the secessionists within each case. Keywords: National Security, Great Power, Military Support, Secessionist Movement, Power Distribution, Rivalry, Military Intervention, Independence Movement, Self-determination, Tibet, Czechoslovakia, Kosovo.

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Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 Introduction
1.1 Research Question 1
1.2 Significance 3
1.3 Existing Literatures 5
1.4 Arguments 10
1.5 Research Design 13

CHAPTER 2 The Pattern of Great Power’s Military Support for Secessionist Groups
2.1 The National Security Interest 20
2.2 The Rivalry 25
2.3 Power Distribution of the Great Power vis-à-vis the Current Sovereign State 27

CHAPTER 3 The United States VS China
3.1 Tibetan Independence Movement 38
3.2 The US-China’s Relationship 42
3.3 The United States VS Rising China 51
3.3.1 China’s Growing Power 54
3.3.2 The US-China Rivalry 58
3.3.3 The Rising China and Its Implication to US’ Tibet Policy 66
3.4 Conclusion 75

CHAPTER 4 Russian Empire VS Austria-Hungary
4.1 Russian Empire and Austro-Hungarian Empire’s Rivalry in World War I 78
4.2 Russian and Czechoslovak Legion 86
4.3 The Independence of Czechoslovakia 100
4.4 Conclusion 102

CHAPTER 5 The United States VS Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
5.1 The Relationship of the United States and Federal Republic of Yugoslavia 105
5.2 US and FRY in Kosovo War 117
5.3 US and the Liberated Kosovo 129
5.4 Conclusion 133

CHAPTER 6 Conclusion
6.1 Empirical Findings 135
6.2 Final Assessment of the Competing Theories 142
6.3 Explaining Other Cases
6.3.1 South Ossetia 144
6.3.2 East Timor 147
6.1 Policy Implications 152

List of References 153












List of Tables

Table 1.1 Expected Outcomes of the Existing Theories 10
Table 1.2 Controlled Values of the Rival Theories’ Variables 17
Table 6.1 Final Assessment of the Prediction of Existing Literatures and the Outcomes of The Case Studies 143



List of Figures

Figure 2.1 The Pattern of Great Power’s Military Support for Secessionist Group 28


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