Risk analysis of supply chains subject to inventory inaccuracy
- 주제(키워드) Inventory inaccuracy , Risk avesion , CVaR
- 발행기관 고려대학교 정보경영공학전문대학원
- 지도교수 이철웅
- 발행년도 2014
- 학위수여년월 2014. 2
- 학위구분 박사
- 학과 정보경영공학전문대학원 정보경영공학과
- 세부전공 Supply chain management
- 원문페이지 108 p
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/korea/000000049601
- 본문언어 영어
- 제출원본 000045793896
초록/요약
Inventory inaccuracy occurs when the inventory shown in the information system does not match that of the physically available inventory. Due to inventory inaccuracy, the inventory system fails to order stock on time or carries more stock than necessary, leading to high risks of stockout and overstock. Earlier studies of inventory inaccuracy have traditionally postulated risk-neutral decision makers whose objective was to maximize expected profits, and they ignored the variance of the profit. However, decision makers usually show a risk-averse attitude in reality and thereby make decisions based on conservative objectives. This study incorporates a risk aversion attitude into the analysis of inventory inaccuracy and investigates the impact of risk aversion on managers' decision policies. First, we investigate a risk-averse retailer's ordering policy within a newsvendor framework. The risk aversion attitude is measured by conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider inventory inaccuracy stemming both from permanent shrinkage and temporary shrinkage. Two scenarios of reducing inventory shrinkage are presented. In the first scenario, the retailer conducts physical inventory audits to identify the discrepancy. In the second scenario, the retailer deploys an automatic tracking technology, radio-frequency identification (RFID), to reduce inventory shrinkage. Under the CVaR criterion, we propose optimal policies for the two scenarios and derive the conditions under which investing in RFID is more profitable. We also identify monotonicity between the retailer's ordering policy and his risk aversion degree. Furthermore, we show that RFID implementation is practicable for high value products. Inventory inaccuracy many times results in the overall poor performance of supply chain, especially when information asymmetry exists between the supplier and the retailer. Thus, we further analyze the impact of inventory inaccuracy on a two-level supply chain consisting of a risk-neutral supplier and a risk-averse retailer. We investigate decision policies of three cases: (1) information asymmetry about inventory errors exists; (2) the retailer shares information about inventory errors with the supplier; and (3) the supply chain invests in RFID for the reduction of inventory errors. The explicit analytical expressions for the benefits of information sharing and RFID implementation are derived. We show that the benefits resulting from RFID are not symmetrically distributed among supply chain participants. Therefore, we propose a revenue and cost sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain and to allocate the cost savings of RFID implementation among supply chain participants. Finally, we provide managerial insights for risk-averse decision makers considering investing in RFID technology.
more목차
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background of the study 1
1.2 Objectives 4
1.3 Dissertation organization 6
2. Literature Review 7
3. The Optimal Ordering policy of A Risk-Averse Retailer Subject to Inventory Inaccuracy 17
3.1 Assumptions and notations 17
3.2 The risk measure criterion: CVaR 23
3.3 The optimal ordering policy with physical inventory audits 27
3.4 The optimal ordering policy with RFID implementation 35
3.5 Model extension with mean-variance analysis 38
3.6 Numerical analysis 44
4. The Optimal Decision Policies of A Two-Level Supply Chain Subject to Inventory Inaccuracy 48
4.1 Assumptions and notations 48
4.2 Decision policies of the supply chain with information asymmetry 50
4.3 Decision policies of the supply chain with RFID implementation 61
4.4 Supply chain coordination 69
4.5 Managerial insights for decision makers 76
5. Summary and Conclusion 85
Reference 88
